News & Opinion

2021 AT&T Byron Nelson: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for TPC Craig Ranch

Marc Leishman looks to continue his solid form this week in the PGA Tour's AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

Scottie Scheffler could whip up some home cookin' in north Texas, but Marc Leishman is worth a look, and Aaron Wise might surprise

It’s amazing how quickly things can turn for the supremely talented.

After yet another poor Masters performance and the addition of a new swing coach, Rory McIlroy might have been destined for a prolonged slump like the one Jordan Spieth recently went through or the journey Rickie Fowler is on. Even while practicing last Wednesday before the Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy did not physically feel like his normal self. However, no matter the recent form, there are certain tracks that offer the right amount of medicine for the world-class talented few. As Torrey Pines, Bay Hill and Firestone Country Club are for Tiger Woods, Quail Hollow Club is that course for Rory McIlroy. It simply suits his eye. The victory last weekend came just in time before another major championship layout that’s been friendly to McIlroy, the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island.

Unfortunately for us, we have had a rough couple of weeks with two more missed cuts by Max Homa and Harold Varner III and our favorite, Justin Thomas, yet again missing out on a top-20 finish by just a stroke. We hope to go up from here.

In the final tuneup before the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour returns to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, north of Dallas, will host the Nelson for the first time and will be welcoming a strong field looking to build momentum into the year's second major championship. There have been nine previous new tournament courses in the past five seasons, and the average winning score has been almost 18 strokes under par. The Tour does not want to scare anyone off from the unknown, so look for scoring conditions to be supreme this week.

World No. 1 Dustin Johnson withdrew from the Nelson late Monday, citing a knee injury. He had been among the oddsmakers' top picks this week.

According to William Hill, world No. 3 Jon Rahm became the outright favorite, at 8-1, followed by No. 4-ranked Bryson DeChambeau, at 9-1. Lifelong Dallas resident Jordan Spieth, who won the Valero Texas Open last month, was listed at 10-1. Next up is last year’s winner at nearby Colonial Country Club, Daniel Berger, at 18-1. Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, Phoenix winner Brooks Koepka and England's Matthew Fitzpatrick were listed at 20-1.

For our favorite, we’re going to follow the steam and take Scottie Scheffler at 25-1. Scheffler is on the precipice of breaking through for a first win, and it feels right, considering that he was raised in Dallas, played college golf at Texas and competed in the Nelson when he was 17, posting three straight rounds in the 60s for a T-22 result in his PGA Tour debut. Scheffler has finished in the top 30 in seven of his past nine starts, including four results of eighth or better. Furthermore, he ranks 14th in birdie average, which should bode well for an event that could resemble a track meet. Scheffler has the goods for his first win, so we’ll see if he can come through.

Since we played a non-favorite, we’re going to treat ourselves to a high midrange pick in Zurich Classic winner Marc Leishman, at 28-1. There's not a whole lot of value with the Aussie, but Leishman has been playing very well lately and deserves the attention. In his past three starts, Leishman has finished T-28, T-5 and first. He has the game to be a major champion, and this week at TPC Craig Ranch might be the final springboard he needs to vault into that category.

For a sleeper, we take Aaron Wise at 66-1. When a past winner comes into the week in good form at this value, it is an auto-play. The 2018 Nelson champion ranks seventh in greens in regulation. Last week, en route to a T-9 at Quail Hollow, he ranked among the top five in strokes gained tee to green. Each club in his bag seems to be working, so look for Wise to feel comfortable once again in Texas.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 3
Top 10s: 8
Top 20s: 9
Misses: 30

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Jon Rahm 8-1
Bryson DeChambeau 9-1
Jordan Spieth 10-1
Daniel Berger 16-1
Hideki Matsuyama 20-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 20-1
Scottie Scheffler 25-1
Marc Leishman 28-1
Will Zalatoris 28-1
Sam Burns 30-1
Si-Woo Kim 35-1
Sergio Garcia 40-1
Ryan Palmer 40-1
Harris English 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Charl Schwartzel 55-1
Matt Kuchar 60-1
Thomas Pieters 66-1
Lee Westwood 66-1
Charles Howell 66-1
Aaron Wise 66-1
Keith Mitchell 66-1
Luke List 66-1
Russell Knox 70-1
Talor Gooch 70-1
Peter Uihlein 70-1
Cameron Champ 80-1
Alex Noren 80-1
Doug Ghim 80-1
Rickie Fowler 80-1
Carlos Ortiz 80-1
Antoine Rozner 90-1
Brandt Snedeker 90-1
Camilo Villegas 100-1
Ryan Moore 100-1
Ben Martin 100-1
Sebastian Munoz 100-1
Jhonattan Vegas 125-1
John Catlin 125-1
Erik Van Rooyen 125-1
James Hahn 125-1
Wyndham Clark 150-1
Tom Hoge 150-1
Pat Perez 150-1
Adam Schenk 150-1
Patton Kizzire 150-1
Sepp Straka 150-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 150-1
Scott Stallings 150-1
Doc Redman 150-1
Martin Laird 150-1
C.T. Pan 150-1
Scott Piercy 150-1

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