News & Opinion

2021 Valero Texas Open: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for TPC San Antonio

At 30-1, Ryan Palmer will look to finally add another PGA Tour win to his resume amid a very consistent career.

Look for Scottie Scheffler to rebound from his WGC Match Play loss, and another Texan, Ryan Palmer, offers good value at 30-1

It was a nice change of pace last week at the PGA Tour's WGC Match Play, with much of the heightened action during the early parts of the tournament, rather than late on Sunday.

We had some interesting duels at Austin (Texas) Country Club, including Kevin Na taking down favorite Dustin Johnson, our pick Sergio Garcia with a walk-off ace to beat Lee Westwood and, ultimately, Billy Horschel grinding out the championship match against the upstart Scottie Scheffler.

Match play is a different type of psychological battle for PGA Tour players and certainly involves more strategies when betting, so we look forward to more opportunities later in the season.

We now look to the last PGA Tour stop on the road to Augusta and the Masters. The Valero Texas Open will be the last chance to qualify for the season's first major championship (looking at you, Rickie Fowler). Six of the past seven winners finished in double-digit red figures at TPC San Antonio, a typically windy track.

According to William Hill, Texas native Jordan Spieth is the favorite at 12-1 after World No. 1 Dustin Johnson withdrew Monday. Next up is last week’s runner-up, Scottie Scheffler, and the only competitor ranked in the top 20 in the world, Tony Finau, both at 16-1. Scheffler, like Spieth, played college golf at the University of Texas. Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama (20-1) and Mexico’s Abraham Ancer (22-1) complete the top tier.

For our favorite, we’re going to ride the hot hand of Scottie Scheffler at 16-1. While there is not much value here, Scheffler showed some guts last week taking down match-play maestro Ian Poulter, No. 3-ranked Jon Rahm and Matt Kuchar in a close match to make the final. Outside of his missed cut at the Players, Scheffler has finished among the top 20 in four of his past five starts, including top-5s in both WGC events. Look for Scheffler to continue his momentum this week against a weaker field.

For a high midrange pick, we’re going with Ryan Palmer at 30-1. Though Palmer has not won a solo title since 2010 (he and Jon Rahm won the 2019 Zurich Classic team event), he has finished in the top 25 in 15 of 27 starts since the beginning of 2020 and is ranked 26th in the world. The native Texan, who played college golf at Texas A&M, also has finished sixth or better in three of his past five starts at the Valero Texas Open, so look for Palmer to continue his steady play near home.

For a deep sleeper, there’s plenty of value in Doug Ghim at 80-1. Ghim made the final group with Justin Thomas at the Players a couple of weeks ago before crumbling with a final-round 78. Ghim, another former Longhorns collegian, has shown flashes of promise, and his experience at the Players should make him stronger. Take Ghim on a flier this week in the top-10 and top-20 markets.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 2
Top 10s: 6
Top 20s: 6
Misses: 18

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Jordan Spieth 12-1
Scottie Scheffler 16-1
Tony Finau 16-1
Hideki Matsuyama 20-1
Abraham Ancer 22-1
Corey Conners 25-1
Brendan Steele 28-1
Charley Hoffman 30-1
Ryan Palmer 30-1
Si Woo Kim 33-1
Cameron Tringale 35-1
Chris Kirk 35-1
Cameron Davis 35-1
Keegan Bradley 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Lanto Griffin 40-1
Zach Johnson 45-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Ryan Moore 55-1
Rickie Fowler 55-1
Joel Dahmen 60-1
Aaron Wise 66-1
Andrew Putnam 66-1
Charles Howell 66-1
Harold Varner 66-1
Adam Hadwin 66-1
Byeong Hun An 66-1
Branden Grace 66-1
Denny McCarthy 70-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Matt Wallace 70-1
Phil Mickelson 70-1
Danny Willett 70-1
Jhonattan Vegas 80-1
Matthew NeSmith 80-1
John Huh 80-1
Erik Van Rooyen 80-1
Doug Ghim 80-1
Sebastian Munoz 80-1
Sam Ryder 80-1
Lucas Glover 90-1
Adam Long 90-1
Harry Higgs 90-1
Tom Hoge 100-1
Russell Knox 100-1
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Martin Laird 100-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 100-1
Sepp Straka 100-1

Sign up to receive the Morning Read newsletter, along with Where To Golf Next and The Equipment Insider.