News & Opinion

2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for TPC Scottsdale

At 45-1, Will Zalatoris looks to take aim at his first PGA Tour title.

Jon Rahm rates as favorite for Scottsdale homecoming, but Will Zalatoris, at 45-1, looks like a solid midrange pick

We were a week too early on the PGA Tour’s favorite villain, Patrick Reed.

Amid yet another on-course controversy, Reed put on a short-game clinic on Sunday to capture the Farmers Insurance Open at San Diego's Torrey Pines for his ninth victory on Tour. There were several contenders heading into the final round, but Reed was too consistent for anyone to scare him off the winner’s circle. Only Rory McIlroy earned us a needed top-20 finish as Hideki Matsuyama and Brandt Snedeker ultimately fell short.

We now look to Arizona for some winners at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Golf’s most famous party, the stadium par-3 No. 16 at TPC Scottsdale, will be much tamer this year as we continue to endure COVID-19 restrictions, but it certainly will deliver excitement with a loaded field. Though many top players will be at the European Tour's Saudi International, five of the top 10-ranked golfers in the world will be in Phoenix to play the Tom Weiskopf-Jay Morrish classic desert setup.

According to William Hill, Jon Rahm will be the favorite for a second straight week. Rahm, who played college golf at nearby Arizona State and lives in Scottsdale, was a 7-1 choice after he finished T-7 last week. Justin Thomas, who will be making his first start since the Sentry Tournament of Champions four weeks ago, was next at 8-1. Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy were co-No. 3 choices, at 11-1. Defending champion Webb Simpson was listed at 16-1.

For our favorite, the value play is Webb Simpson at 16-1. For a defending champion who loves this track, Simpson is too good to pass up. He is flying under the radar a bit this week after losing in a playoff at the 2017 Phoenix Open, plus three other top-10s at TPC Scottsdale. Last year, Simpson gained over nine shots on the field from tee-to-green, so look for him to be right there at the end again.

For a midrange pick, Will Zalatoris, at 45-1, also presents solid value. After last year’s incredible season on the Korn Ferry Tour, he arrived in the big leagues with four top-10s in his past seven starts: T-6 at the U.S. Open, T-8 at Corales, T-5 at Shriners and a T-7 last week at Torrey Pines. The 24-year-old American gained more than two strokes on the field tee-to-green during his final round in San Diego, and TPC Scottsdale should set up well for him to continue his momentum.

For a sleeper, Max Homa at 70-1 seems to be the play. In his past three starts, he finished T-12, T-21 and T-18, including a 54-hole lead at the recent American Express. Homa won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2019 and was T-6 at the Phoenix Open in 2020. Expect Homa to compete this week.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners:
Top 10s: 1
Top 20s: 3
Misses:7

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Jon Rahm 7-1
Justin Thomas 8-1
Xander Schauffele 11-1
Rory McIlroy 11-1
Webb Simpson 16-1
Daniel Berger 20-1
Hideki Matsuyama 22-1
Harris English 28-1
Sungjae Im 33-1
Rickie Fowler 40-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
Will Zalatoris 45-1
Scottie Scheffler 45-1
Ryan Palmer 45-1
Gary Woodland 45-1
Matthew Wolff 45-1
Billy Horschel 50-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Louis Oosthuizen 50-1
Si-Woo Kim 60-1
Russell Henley 66-1
Corey Conners 66-1
Max Homa 70-1
Henrik Norlander 70-1
Cameron Champ 70-1
Sam Burns 70-1
Carlos Ortiz 70-1
Brendon Todd 80-1
Jordan Spieth 80-1
Brian Harman 80-1
Brendan Steele 80-1
Byeong Hun An 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Sebastian Munoz 90-1
Adam Long 100-1
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Chris Kirk 100-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Adam Hadwin 100-1

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