News & Opinion

2021 Farmers Insurance Open: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for Torrey Pines

At 150-1 odds and with a strong history at Torrey Pines, Brandt Snedeker warrants some action in the Farmers Insurance Open.

Jon Rahm rates as a 7-2 favorite, and Rory McIlroy looks good at 8-1 odds, but Brandt Snedeker simply is too good to pass at 150-1

Our picks for the past couple of weeks have been as good as Tony Finau closing on Sunday. Si Woo Kim earned his third PGA Tour victory and first since winning The Players Championship in 2017 when he posted a dominant final-round 64 at The American Express. He left the field in the dust and the rest of our picks in ruins. Talor Gooch and Adam Hadwin were just one stroke and two strokes away, respectively, from nabbing top 20s, but we still must do better.

The PGA Tour season starts in Hawaii, but the “Tiger season” typically begins at the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego. Unfortunately for us, Woods underwent a fifth back surgery recently, and we’ll probably have to wait until at least the Florida Swing in March to see him tee it up again. However, several other stars will relish the opportunity to get a sneak peek at Torrey Pines for what they’ll be facing for this year’s U.S. Open in June.

According to oddsmaker William Hill, the favorite was world No. 2 Jon Rahm, a 7-2 choice after he withdrew from last week's The American Express, citing a training injury. Rory McIlroy was an 8-1 second pick. He placed third last week in the European Tour's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. San Diegan Xander Schauffele was next, at 12-1, followed by Tony Finau (20-1) and the red-hot Harris English (22-1).

For our favorite, we’re going chalk here and taking Rory McIlroy at 8-1. There is not much value here, but he simply plays this course too well. In his only two appearances at the Farmers, he placed T-3 in 2020 and T-5 in 2019. We’ll take a healthy McIlroy over a questionable Rahm.

For a midrange pick, Hideki Matsuyama, at 28-1, presents solid value. A big theme in the 2020-21 season has been former winners breaking long droughts, and Matsuyama, who hasn't won on any major pro tour in more than three years, would fit the storyline. His putting always has been his Achilles heel, but he should be more comfortable on a course where he has finished 16th or better in seven starts, including two of the past three years. If Mats gets the irons going, watch out.

For a very deep sleeper, we must get in on the Brandt Snedeker party at 150-1. His current form is nothing to write home about, but only Tiger Woods has played Torrey Pines better than Snedeker. Sneds won the Farmers in 2012 and 2016, and he added runners-up results in 2010 and 2013 before a T-3 last year. There simply is too much value for a guy who loves this course.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners:
Top 10s: 1
Top 20s: 2
Misses: 5

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Jon Rahm 7-2
Rory McIlroy 8-1
Xander Schauffele 12-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Harris English 22-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Viktor Hovland 30-1
Matthew Wolff 33-1
Scottie Scheffler 33-1
Marc Leishman 33-1
Sungjae Im 33-1
Brooks Koepka 35-1
Jason Day 35-1
Si Woo Kim 35-1
Adam Scott 35-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
Will Zalatoris 45-1
Cameron Davis 50-1
Louis Oosthuizen 50-1
Ryan Palmer 50-1
Cameron Smith 50-1
Jason Kokrak 55-1
Billy Horschel 60-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Cameron Champ 60-1
Jordan Spieth 66-1
Sam Burns 66-1
Rickie Fowler 66-1
Gary Woodland 66-1
Francesco Molinari 70-1
Carlos Ortiz 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Doug Ghim 100-1
Lanto Griffin 100-1
Charles Howell 100-1
Erik Van Rooyen 100-1
Byeong Hun An 100-1
Emiliano Grillo 100-1
Alex Noren 100-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1

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