News & Opinion

2021 American Express: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for PGA West

At 50-1, Adam Hadwin offers strong value for a guy who has lit up PGA West in past appearances.

Patrick Reed should draw plenty of action at 16-1, but Adam Hadwin (50-1) and Talor Gooch (80-1) might be smarter bets

It was not a memorable week for the picks, but it certainly was notable for Kevin Na.

Na became one of only seven PGA Tour players to have won at least four times since January 2018. He edged journeyman Chris Kirk and favorite Joaquin Niemann with a final-round 65 to take the crown at the Sony Open in Hawaii at Honolulu's Waialae Country Club. Only Charles Howell III sneaked into the top 20 to salvage an otherwise forgettable week for us.

We now arrive at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif., for The American Express to begin the West Coast Swing. This year will look a little different than past years because the COVID-19 pandemic prompted cancellation of the pro-am, so the tournament will feature a traditional 36-hole cut rather than the usual 54-hole cut at the AmEx. However, the Stadium and companion Nicklaus courses are easy by Tour standards, so expect to see another birdie-fest this week.

According to William Hill, the favorite is Patrick Cantlay, at 14-1, after Jon Rahm withdrew for undisclosed reasons late Monday. Next up are world Nos. 11 and 12, respectively: Patrick Reed (16-1) and Brooks Koepka (18-1). Scottie Scheffler, the reigning PGA Tour rookie of the year, also was listed at 18-1, followed by Tony Finau at 20-1 to highlight the favorites.

For our favorite, we’ll take Patrick Reed at 16-1. Reed won at The American Express in 2014, and this will be his first appearance at the tournament since 2018. In his last five starts of 2020, Reed finished no worse than 14th, and he made a solid 2021 debut two weeks ago at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, tying for 21st. Look for Reed to be right there in contention on Sunday.

For a midrange pick, we’re going with Adam Hadwin at 50-1. It’s a shame that he has not won this tournament yet, considering his last four starts at PGA West. He finished T-6 in 2016, then had a three-year run of 2-T-3-T-2, which included a 59 on the card in 2017. Hadwin should be full of confidence upon his return to La Quinta after missing last year’s event because of the birth of his child.

For a deep sleeper pick, we’ll look at Talor Gooch at 80-1. In his last two starts at The American Express, he finished fourth in 2019 and 17th in 2020. He missed the cut last week at the Sony Open, but his strong driving should bode well for him at PGA West. Gooch will look to regain confidence with his irons and make a strong run up the leaderboard.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners:
Top 10s: 1
Top 20s: 2
Misses:2

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Patrick Cantlay 14-1
Patrick Reed 16-1
Brooks Koepka 18-1
Scottie Scheffler 18-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Matthew Wolff 25-1
Kevin Na 33-1
Abraham Ancer 35-1
Rickie Fowler 40-1
Russell Henley 40-1
Phil Mickelson 45-1
Cameron Champ 45-1
Adam Hadwin 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Adam Long 50-1
Lanto Griffin 50-1
Patton Kizzire 55-1
Sam Burns 55-1
Si-Woo Kim 55-1
Zach Johnson 60-1
Brian Harman 60-1
Emiliano Grillo 60-1
Ryan Moore 60-1
Charles Howell 60-1
Aaron Wise 66-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Erik Van Rooyen 70-1
Chris Kirk 70-1
Russell Knox 80-1
Doc Redman 80-1
Talor Gooch 80-1
Alex Noren 80-1
Sepp Straka 80-1
J.T. Poston 80-1
Charley Hoffman 80-1
Cameron Tringale 80-1
Cameron Davis 80-1
Lucas Glover 80-1
Matt Jones 90-1
Joel Dahmen 90-1
Kevin Streelman 90-1
Francesco Molinari 100-1
Brendan Steele 100-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Nick Taylor 100-1
Tom Hoge 100-1
Peter Malnati 100-1
James Hahn 100-1
Maverick McNealy 100-1
John Huh 100-1

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