News & Opinion

2020 BMW Championship: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for Olympia Fields

Daniel Berger at 2020 PGA Championship
At early 22-1 odds, Daniel Berger looks like a good value play to win this week's BMW Championship.

Despite Dustin Johnson’s runaway victory in Boston, Justin Thomas rates as the best bet, with Daniel Berger adding value

When most players win on the PGA Tour, it takes their best effort of the season. When Dustin Johnson wins, it makes many of us wonder why he doesn’t just do so every week.

At the top of his game, Johnson makes everything look so easy. It never was more evident than last week at the Northern Trust, when he set the Tour record for best 54-hole stretch, including an 11-under run through his first 11 holes on Friday at TPC Boston. Ultimately, Johnson shot 30 under and won the opener of the three-tournament FedEx Cup playoffs by 11 strokes.

Once again, Johnson, in winning for the 22nd time on the PGA Tour, left those watching in awe.

But Johnson wasn’t the only one to finish well under par. Jon Rahm shot four rounds in the 60s to collect another top-10 for us. Patrick Reed, T-49, did not necessarily have a bad week but simply could not keep up with the pace set by the leaders. Our sleeper, Doc Redman, might have had the most heartbreaking tournament of all by missing the cut and more importantly, finishing the week at 71 in the FedEx Cup standings to miss out on this week’s BMW Championship by one spot.

Of the top 70 left for the FedEx Cup, players near the bottom will have to be in contention at Olympia Fields (Ill.) Country Club near Chicago if they want to be included at the 30-man Tour Championship in Atlanta. Notable players who sit outside the top 30 include Louis Oosthuizen (70), Bubba Watson (58), Tiger Woods (57), Jason Day (50), Gary Woodland (39), Adam Scott (38) and Patrick Cantlay (37).

According to William Hill, Johnson, fresh off battering the field at the Northern Trust and returning to No. 1 in the world ranking, is the favorite at 8-1. After another good showing last week, Rahm is the second favorite, at 10-1. The defending BMW champion, Justin Thomas, and Bryson DeChambeau are next at 12-1. Then comes Rory McIlroy, the defending FedEx Cup champion, at 16-1.

Among the favorites, we’re going to go with the most trustworthy player of the group, Thomas, at 12-1. We know Johnson is coming off one of the most dominating performances of all-time, but no one can guess which player will show up week to week. Thomas is the defending champion and was just taken off his perch at top of the FedEx Cup standings, so look for him to build some momentum heading into the Tour Championship.

Our midrange pick this week is Daniel Berger, at 22-1. Is there anyone more consistent than this guy right now? He posted three top-three finishes in his past five starts. With the stakes growing, look for Berger to align himself for a serious run at the FedEx Cup next week at East Lake Golf Club.

A sleeper pick for this week is Kevin Kisner, at 40-1. Kisner normally would not qualify as a “sleeper,” but we’ll make an exception because there are only 70 players this week. Through Kisner’s last four starts, he has gained at least five strokes on the field in putting. Kisner is coming off two straight top-five finishes, so look for him to solidify his place inside the top 30.

2020 picks scoreboard:
Winners: 3
Top 10s: 9
Top 25s: 3
Misses: 15

Here are the notable odds, according to William Hill:

Dustin Johnson 8-1
Jon Rahm 10-1
Justin Thomas 12-1
Bryson DeChambeau 12-1
Rory McIlroy 16-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Webb Simpson 20-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Daniel Berger 22-1
Patrick Reed 28-1
Jason Day 28-1
Scottie Scheffler 33-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 33-1
Tiger Woods 33-1
Tyrrell Hatton 35-1
Harris English 35-1
Viktor Hovland 40-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Matthew Wolff 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Kevin Kisner 40-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Louis Oosthuizen 55-1
Billy Horschel 55-1
Sungjae Im 66-1
Abraham Ancer 70-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Alex Noren 70-1
Ryan Palmer 80-1
Cameron Champ 80-1
Russell Henley 80-1
Matt Kuchar 80-1
Brendon Todd 100-1
Bubba Watson 100-1
Marc Leishman 100-1
Corey Conners 125-1
Byeong Hun An 125-1
Jason Kokrak 125-1
Kevin Na 125-1
Cameron Smith 125-1
Brian Harman 125-1
Mackenzie Hughes 1501
Brendan Steele 150-1
Joel Dahmen 150-1
J.T. Poston 150-1
Joaquin Niemann 150-1
Charles Howell III 175-1
Kevin Streelman 200-1
Tyler Duncan 200-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
Richy Werenski 200-1
Mark Hubbard 200-1
Robby Shelton 200-1
Lanto Griffin 200-1
Dylan Frittelli 200-1
Sebastian Munoz 200-1
Talor Gooch 200-1
Max Homa 200-1
Danny Lee 225-1
Harry Higgs 250-1
Adam Long 250-1
Michael Thompson 300-1
Jim Herman 300-1
Nick Taylor 300-1
Maverick McNealy 300-1
Andrew Landry 300-1
Carlos Ortiz 300-1
Tom Hoge 350-1

Sign up to receive the Morning Read newsletter, along with Where To Golf Next and The Equipment Insider.