News & Opinion

2020 Northern Trust: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for TPC Boston

Jon Rahm 2020 PGA Championship
Spain's Jon Rahm, at 14-1 odds, looks like a good pick to win this week's FedEx Cup playoff opener, the Northern Trust at TPC Boston.

Jon Rahm, a 14-1 choice, looks like a good bet to win the PGA Tour’s playoff opener, but Patrick Reed merits some action, and Doc Redman might be the best long shot in the field

It was a true toss-up last week at the final PGA Tour stop before the start of the FedEx Cup playoffs this week. Si Woo Kim entered the final round of the Wyndham Championship with a two-stroke lead, but he went 3 over on his first eight holes at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C., to drop the flag on a sprint to the finish. The tournament ultimately came down to a birdie putt on No. 18 from Billy Horschel, the 2014 FedEx Cup champion, in an attempt to force a playoff with Jim Herman. The putt burned the edge as an emotional Herman, who played his final 36 holes in 16 under, found an improbable route into the playoffs.

As for the picks, taking Webb Simpson to play well at the Wyndham Championship is about as risky as expecting Tiger Woods to make a cut. However, it was only another seemingly routine top-5 finish for Simpson in his native North Carolina that salvaged poor performances from J.T. Poston and Corey Conners, both of whom failed to make the weekend. Poston and Conners will be playing this week in the Northern Trust at TPC Boston in Norton, Mass., but will have to bounce back in order to sustain their top-70 positions for the BMW Championship.

With the top 125 players arriving in Beantown this week, motivation certainly will be the least of bettors’ worries. The top performers of 2020 can separate themselves from the pack for positioning at the Tour Championship in two weeks. Those who barely qualified will do everything possible to make Olympia Fields next week.

According to William Hill, the most recent winner of a playoff event at TPC Boston, Bryson DeChambeau, was the co-favorite at 12-1 alongside FedEx Cup points leader Justin Thomas. Rory McIlroy, the defending FedEx Cup champion, and world No. 1 Jon Rahm were next at 14-1. Rounding out the top picks was Dustin Johnson at 18-1, who will be looking to build upon a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship two weeks ago.

Among the favorites, we like Rahm at 14-1. As with McIlroy, we do not know what we’re going to get most of the time when he tees it up, but this is a bomber’s course, and Rahm should have plenty of motivation to improve his standing before the Tour Championship in Atlanta. He tied for 13th in the PGA at TPC Harding Park, so we’re going to look for some momentum this week.

Patrick Reed, the defending champion, will be our midrange pick, at 28-1. He had yet another solid week at the Wyndham Championship, with four rounds in the 60s. Since the restart, Reed has three top-10 finishes in nine tournaments. From 2015 to 2017, he finished T-4, T-5 and T-6 at TPC Boston. He loves big events, so look for Reed to feel right at home once again.

A sleeper pick for this week is Doc Redman, at 125-1. One big key to TPC Boston will be gaining strokes on the field in approach. Redman ranks 13th on Tour in strokes gained approach, and he recently tied for third at the Wyndham Championship. His game is trending in the right direction, and there simply is too much value on him this week.

2020 picks scoreboard:
Winners: 3
Top 10s: 8
Top 25s: 3
Misses: 13

Here are the notable odds, according to William Hill:

Justin Thomas 12-1
Bryson DeChambeau 12-1
Jon Rahm 14-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Dustin Johnson 18-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Collin Morikawa 20-1
Jason Day 25-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Patrick Cantlay 28-1
Webb Simpson 28-1
Patrick Reed 28-1
Daniel Berger 28-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Tiger Woods 40-1
Adam Scott 45-1
Rickie Fowler 50-1
Justin Rose 50-1
Gary Woodland 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Sungjae Im 50-1
Tommy Fleetwood 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Scottie Scheffler 55-1
Abraham Ancer 55-1
Viktor Hovland 66-1
Jordan Spieth 66-1
Matthew Wolff 66-1
Billy Horschel 66-1
Louis Oosthuizen 70-1
Si Woo Kim 70-1
Kevin Kisner 70-1
Marc Leishman 80-1
Harris English 80-1
Shane Lowry 90-1
Cameron Champ 90-1
Brendon Todd 90-1
Byeong Hun An 100-1
Harold Varner III 100-1
Phil Mickelson 100-1
Matt Kuchar 100-1
Alex Noren 125-1
Russell Henley 125-1
Joaquin Niemann 125-1
Bubba Watson 125-1
Ian Poulter 125-1
Doc Redman 125-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Tom Lewis 150-1
Ryan Palmer 150-1
Dylan Frittelli 150-1
Brendan Steele 150-1
Emiliano Grillo 150-1
Adam Hadwin 150-1
Ryan Moore 150-1
Joel Dahmen 150-1
Chez Reavie 150-1
Richy Werenski 175-1
Corey Conners 175-1
Charley Hoffman 200-1
Kevin Streelman 200-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Brian Harman 200-1
Cameron Smith 200-1
Brandt Snedeker 200-1
Henrik Norlander 200-1
Max Homa 200-1
Charles Howell III 200-1
Patrick Rodgers 200-1
Zach Johnson 200-1
Luke List 200-1
Sam Burns 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Keegan Bradley 200-1
Jason Kokrak 200-1
Bud Cauley 250-1
Adam Long 250-1
Lanto Griffin 250-1
Pat Perez 250-1
Maverick McNealy 250-1
Jim Herman 250-1
J.T. Poston 250-1
Cameron Tringale 250-1
Mark Hubbard 250-1
Ryan Armour 250-1
Sepp Straka 250-1
Michael Thompson 250-1
Scott Stallings 250-1
Cameron Davis 250-1
Rory Sabbatini 250-1
Tom Hoge 300-1
Talor Gooch 300-1
Nick Taylor 300-1
Denny McCarthy 300-1
Sam Ryder 300-1
Matt Jones 300-1
Brice Garnett 300-1
Adam Schenk 300-1
Graeme McDowell 300-1
Tyler Duncan 300-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 300-1
Vaughn Taylor 300-1
Xinjun Zhang 350-1
Andrew Landry 350-1
Scott Piercy 350-1
Brian Stuard 400-1
Keith Mitchell 400-1
Troy Merritt 400-1
Beau Hossler 400-1
Danny Lee 400-1
Sung Kang 400-1
Bo Hoag 500-1
Matthew NeSmith 500-1
Nate Lashley 500-1
Carlos Ortiz 500-1
Robby Shelton 500-1
Scott Harrington 500-1
Sebastian Munoz 500-1
Harry Higgs 500-1
Scott Brown 500-1
Wyndham Clark 500-1
Zac Blair 750-1
Brian Gay 750-1

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