News & Opinion

2020 3M Open: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for TPC Twin Cities

Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka top the list of favorites, but Tony Finau looks like a good bet, provided that you can ignore his finish last week at the Memorial

Did the PGA Tour pros really play the same course last week as the week before? What a difference a few days can mean for layout and weather conditions.

Muirfield Village went from a borderline Korn Ferry Tour stop to a U.S. Open-like track in back-to-back weeks. Despite a penalty from a post-round ruling, Jon Rahm won the Memorial Tournament for his fourth career victory and ascended to the No. 1 world ranking. He is only the second Spaniard to do so, after the late Seve Ballesteros more than three decades ago.

Tony Finau at Waste Management Phoenix Open
Tony Finau could be a good bet to win the 3M Open this week at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn.

All of our picks last week (Patrick Cantlay, Abraham Ancer and Tiger Woods) looked promising at one point or another during play, but the conditions ultimately pushed them beyond the top 25. The most notable takeaway from the week was the fact that six out of the top seven finishers were all non-Americans. So, something for bettors to think about in the future: When weather conditions begin to turn for the worse, look for players who have more experience playing in them to succeed.

This week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn., is one of only two tournaments in the coronavirus-affected second half of the season that will be played in its original date. (Last month’s Travelers was the other.) The 3M, like the rest of the tournaments through mid-September, will be contested without spectators.

According to U.K. oddsmaker William Hill, American Dustin Johnson, who at No. 4 in the world is the highest-ranked player in the field, has shown enough to be the favorite at 11-1 despite his missed cut at the Memorial. Three weeks earlier, he won the Travelers. No. 6-ranked Brooks Koepka of the U.S. is the co-second choice with Tony Finau this week, at 14-1. England’s Tommy Fleetwood, making his first start since Bay Hill in March, is a 16-1 choice. Defending champion Matthew Wolff of the U.S. and England’s Paul Casey were next at 25-1.

Among the favorites, we are going with Finau, despite his having plummeted from the 36-hole lead at the Memorial to an eighth-place finish. His 73-78 weekend stung, but we are going to take it as an anomaly. Finau has been inspired by the gargantuan drives of Bryson DeChambeau, who is not playing this week, and has found an extra gear himself off the tee. Finau also shot 59 at his home club in Park City, Utah, before Memorial.

Our first sleeper of the week is Erik van Rooyen at 45-1. The South African played college golf at nearby University of Minnesota and has posted two top-25 performances since the season restart. He will use his superior ball-striking (second in strokes gained approach last week) in a familiar place to post his best finish of the year.

With one of the weakest fields of the year, we’re going to make our sleepiest pick of the year. Derek Ernst at 200-1 is on the PGA Tour comeback trail. Ernst, the 2013 Wells Fargo champion, has been grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour this season. In his past three starts on the developmental tour, he finished T-5, T-12 and T-10. Let’s ride his momentum back into the big leagues.

2020 picks scoreboard:
Winners: 2
Top 10s: 5
Top 25s: 2
Misses: 6

Here are the full-field odds, according to William Hill:

Dustin Johnson 11-1
Brooks Koepka 14-1
Tony Finau 14-1
Tommy Fleetwood 16-1
Paul Casey 25-1
Matthew Wolff 25-1
Russell Henley 33-1
Harris English 33-1
Lucas Glover 35-1
Bubba Watson 35-1
Erik Van Rooyen 45-1
Brendon Todd 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Doc Redman 50-1
Sepp Straka 50-1
Luke List 50-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Henrik Norlander 55-1
Patrick Rodgers 60-1
Ryan Moore 60-1
Si-Woo Kim 66-1
Chris Kirk 66-1
Will Gordon 66-1
Kristoffer Ventura 66-1
Carlos Ortiz 66-1
Jhonattan Vegas 66-1
Dylan Frittelli 66-1
Ryan Armour 66-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 70-1
Charley Hoffman 70-1
Tom Lewis 70-1
Max Homa 70-1
Troy Merritt 70-1
Richy Werenski 80-1
Wyndham Clark 80-1
Alex Noren 80-1
Sam Ryder 80-1
Charles Howell 80-1
Bernd Wiesberger 80-1
Scott Stallings 80-1
Kyle Stanley 100-1
Matthias Schwab 100-1
Adam Schenk 100-1
Talor Gooch 100-1
Emiliano Grillo 100-1
Ben Martin 100-1
Jason Kokrak 100-1
Michael Thompson 100-1
Wes Roach 100-1
Pat Perez 100-1
Chase Seiffert 100-1
Chesson Hadley 125-1
Danny Lee 125-1
Aaron Wise 125-1
Matthew NeSmith 125-1
Jason Dufner 125-1
Harry Higgs 125-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 125-1
Cameron Tringale 125-1
Chris Stroud 125-1
Peter Uihlein 125-1
Seung-Yul Noh 125-1
Adam Long 125-1
Tom Hoge 125-1
Brandon Hagy 125-1
Scott Piercy 125-1
Charl Schwartzel 125-1
Austin Cook 125-1
Vaughn Taylor 150-1
Xinjun Zhang 150-1
Hudson Swafford 150-1
Keith Mitchell 150-1
Brice Garnett 150-1
Stewart Cink 150-1
Joseph Bramlett 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Russell Knox 150-1
Patton Kizzire 150-1
Derek Ernst 200-1
Sahith Theegala 200-1
Roger Sloan 200-1
Nick Watney 200-1
Beau Hossler 200-1
Andrew Putnam 200-1
Cameron Davis 200-1
Scott Harrington 200-1
Seamus Power 200-1
Rhein Gibson 200-1
Bronson Burgoon 200-1
Fabian Gomez 200-1
Tim Wilkinson 200-1
Johnson Wagner 200-1
Scott Brown 200-1
J.J. Spaun 200-1
Sang-Moon Bae 200-1
Luke Donald 250-1
Shawn Stefani 250-1
George McNeill 250-1
Bo Hoag 250-1
Josh Teater 250-1
Bill Haas 250-1
Brian Gay 250-1
Kevin Tway 250-1
Kramer Hickok 250-1
Alex Cejka 250-1
Tyler McCumber 300-1
Ryan Blaum 300-1
Aaron Baddeley 300-1
Hank Lebioda 300-1
Mark Anderson 300-1
Chris Couch 300-1
Ted Potter 300-1
Chris Baker 300-1
Grayson Murray 300-1
Peter Malnati 300-1
Zack Sucher 300-1
Jamie Lovemark 300-1
Roberto Castro 300-1
Cameron Percy 300-1
Robert Streb 300-1
Vincent Whaley 300-1
David Hearn 300-1
Jonathan Byrd 300-1
David Lingmerth 300-1
Sebastian Cappelen 300-1
Nelson Ledesma 400-1
Arjun Atwal 400-1
Ryan Brehm 400-1
K.J. Choi 400-1
D.J. Trahan 400-1
Chad Campbell 400-1
Ricky Barnes 400-1
Doug Ghim 400-1
Tommy Gainey 400-1
Robby Shelton 400-1
J.J. Henry 500-1
Greg Chalmers 500-1
Chase Koepka 500-1
John Merrick 500-1
Michael Gligic 500-1
Matt Every 500-1
Derek Ernst 500-1
Michael Gellerman 500-1
Ben Taylor 500-1
Rob Oppenheim 500-1
Peter Kuest 500-1
Dominic Bozzelli 500-1
Tom Lehman 500-1
Bo Van Pelt 750-1
Martin Trainer 750-1
Tim Herron 750-1
John Senden 750-1
Angus Flanagan 750-1
Michael Kim 750-1

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